Red-letter day: Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema at the head of a march. He has said that Monday’s protests will be peaceful. Photo: Felix Dlangamandla/Gallo Images
While South Africa is focused on the possibility of violence and looting during the shutdown called by Economic Freedom FIghters (EFF) on Monday, 20 March, the protest is, in reality, a test of the party’s strength going into next year’s national and provincial elections.
The Red Berets, already in de facto coalitions with the ANC in the Joburg, Tshwane and eThekwini metros, are aiming to show the ANC how strong a threat — and potential ally — they are before next year’s poll, in which the ANC is expected to lose its majority nationally.
While much of the rhetoric from the EFF and its leader Julius Malema is about dislodging Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC president, Monday will equally be a test of the EFF party machinery ahead of the elections.
A successful stayaway would illustrate the EFF’s ability to get its people into the streets — and the polling booths next May — and send a message to the ANC that despite being seen as having just 10% of the national vote, the opposition party will have to be entertained in any talks to constitute a coalition government.
The EFF has secured mixed results in recent by-elections — and has undergone leadership changes in its regional and provincial structures nationwide — so Monday’s shutdown also provides an opportunity to mobilise, boost morale in areas where it has had setbacks and test the organisational ability of the new leadership.
The South African Federation of Trade Unions, the African Transformation Movement (ATM) and the Pan Africanist Congress have joined the action, which is also aimed at protesting escalating unemployment and the power crisis.
Malema is also hoping a successful march will symbolise and capitalise on anti-Ramaphosa sentiment in the country and the power crisis.
The EFF plans to kickstart its campaign against Ramaphosa using the national shutdown as a litmus test to gauge South Africa’s feelings about the president. It is the same strategy used in its campaign against the previous ANC president Jacob Zuma.
While the EFF had more public and media sympathy in the Zuma years, its strategy in parliament to disrupt the president has not gained them favour during Ramaphosa’s term thus far.
Malema has ambitions to take the party to the 15% mark in next year’s elections, hoping this will ensure the EFF is central to the negotiating table during coalition talks.
The relationship between the EFF and the ANC could be strengthened as the governing party elected a younger national executive committee. A practice run for what could be a strong union between the two parties is at play in the Gauteng metros and in KwaZulu-Natal.
The two parties have managed to unseat the Democratic Alliance (DA) in Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg and Tshwane, with hopes of extending this to Mogale City.
Malema’s chances of being a cabinet minister, or other integral member of the government, relies on his party regaining its prominence in the public eye. The EFF struggled to find relevance during the two years the country was battling the Covid pandemic. Ramaphosa, and by extension the ANC, monopolised the media as well as public discourse.
The DA was in the same boat but managed to keep in the news with court challenges against the harsh restrictions, ingratiating itself with its historical constituency which the official opposition had largely lost in the Mmusi Maimane days.
The EFF was also slow to leverage on Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala scandal as the DA and the smaller ATM took the central role.
Responding to a question about the stayaway during a media briefing with visiting Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan on Thursday, Ramaphosa warned the government and law enforcement would not tolerate any violence or anarchy.
He said the country’s politics were fractious and divided and alluded to the EFF using the shutdown as part of its strategy for the elections.
“South Africa is governed by the rule of law. We are a constitutional democracy. Regime change can only come about through the vote. It cannot come about through anarchy, unleashing disorder in a country.
“The right to protest is enshrined in our constitution. It’s deeply embedded in our constitution and is a right that we as South Africans fought for and won,” he said.
“Those who want to protest, by all means protest peacefully, but if you are going to restrict the rights of other people, if you are going to coerce them, if you are going to intimidate them and unleash violence, our security forces are going to defend our people.”
In an interview with the Mail & Guardian, ANC spokesperson Mahelingi Bhengu said the EFF march could not be used to test the theory that the country is headed for large-scale unrest.
“The EFF is a political party and is campaigning towards the general elections. It would use any means at their disposal, and hopefully these get used within the confines of the law, but I doubt that a party that enjoys the electoral support that it enjoys — which is really miniscule — can be used as a test case for discontent in society,” Bhengu said.
“This is not to take away the fact that there are persistent challenges [which] the ANC has spoken frankly about — cost of living, the fuel and energy situation. I’m not certain that we can come to a conclusion that there is something that is about to happen along the lines of the July unrest,” she added, referring to the looting and vandalism which rocked Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal in 2021.
Bhengu said her observation stemmed from a recent visit by the president to KwaZulu-Natal. The mood in the province and the reception Ramaphosa got did not suggest tensions were of the scale that could lead to unrest, she added.
“The ANC is engaging, reconnecting with communities and we are still going to be rolling out a lot of these, including interacting with institutions of traditional leadership.We will push back against a narrative that suggests South Africa is on the brink of collapse of any kind because I don’t think it’s backed by science.”
On Wednesday, Malema said Monday’s protest would be peaceful but the EFF had engaged businesses, warning them against opening.
Essential workers would be able to go to their jobs and the party would make sure essential services were allowed to continue. The EFF had asked taxi associations to take the protest action into consideration.
“There shouldn’t be unnecessary confrontation between us and the taxis because we all belong to the same class and therefore to have the working class fighting each other is to please capital,” Malema said.
Santaco, the biggest taxi association, said this week it would not participate in the national shutdown but supported it.
The EFF leader encouraged party supporters and members to defend themselves against anyone preventing the protests.
“Fighters, progressive South Africans, conduct yourselves peacefully but anyone who comes with nonsense — do not tolerate nonsense from anyone,” he said.
Malema said the shutdown would mark the start of “the revolution”.
“This is the beginning of a revolution. We said to you, Ramaphosa will never have peace as long as he violated his oath of office,” he said.
